Navigating Market Shifts: Weekly Insights and Strategic Outlook for 2025
Dear students, happy weekend!
I’m delighted to connect with all of you here at Diamond Ridge Financial Academy to share valuable investment knowledge. I hope my insights will be helpful to everyone, and I wish you all a wonderful evening.
This week, we witnessed the end of the 2024 trading year and the start of 2025. It’s both a review of the past year’s market performance and a look ahead to next year’s investment opportunities. In our sharing, we summarized the overall performance of the UK and US stock markets in 2024, analyzed the earnings differences among major industries and explored the driving factors behind them. From the resilience of the energy sector to the strength of tech, from the stability of traditional industries to the breakout of emerging fields, we discussed how to seize core opportunities in different market environments.
At the same tim, we also focused on the application of quantitative trading and technical patterns in practice, sharing investment opportunities in stocks like Rolls-Royce and Dogecoin. This helped everyone better understand how to combine trend analysis with trading decisions to accurately identify the best entry and exit points. Additionally, we discussed how the macroeconomic environment impacts the crypto market, with an in-depth analysis of Dogecoin investment opportunities under the expectations of Trump’s policies.
Tonight, we’ll do a full recap of this week’s market trends, consolidate key investment strategies and prepare for next week’s trading.
Let’s start with the UK stock market. This week, the FTSE 100 Index broke above 8200 points, rising more than 0.9%. The specific trends are as follows:
Monday: The index fell, led by declines in fixed-line telecom, mining and aerospace and defense sectors.
Tuesday: The index rose, led by gains in mining, consumer goods and financial sectors.
Thursday: The index rose again, led by gains in mining, oil and gas producers, and tobacco sectors.
Friday: The index fell, led by declines in beverages, household goods, residential construction and fixed-line telecom sectors.
From the above trends, we can see that funds were concentrated in a few active sectors. For example, mining stocks fell on Monday but rose later as national commodity prices increased. Meanwhile, sectors like consumer goods and household goods showed significant volatility due to year end consumption data. So, short-term market sentiment is closely tied to the latest economic data and policy changes.
In practice, many investors find it hard to keep up with the pace of short-term trading. On one hand, most of our students are amateur investors who don’t have the time for real-time trading. On the other hand, capturing precise short-term trading signals requires a certain level of investment knowledge and decisive execution.
Additionally, many students have just joined our online learning program. To ensure everyone can follow our trading signals, this week, we focused on recommending Rolls-Royce in the UK stock market. Although this stock doesn’t see frequent participation from short-term funds, its long-term upward trend is very clear, making it suitable for all students to participate.
Our last trade was on Nov 26, when we bought it at £5.36, gaining over 10%. More recently, we bought it again around £5.75 and it’s already showing profits. Currently, the stock has climbed back above the 21-day moving average (as shown in the chart) and is likely to break its historical high soon.
This week, the performance of the US stock market was somewhat disappointing. The Dow Jones fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 0.48% and 0.68%, respectively. US stocks are often seen as a barometer of the global market and this pullback not only affected investor sentiment but also raised more concerns about economic prospects. The decline was mainly due to three factors:
First, the Fed's monetary policy adjustments became a major pressure point for the market. Although the 25-basis point rate cut announced on Dec 19 hinted at a loosening policy, the following statements still sounded “hawkish.” The Fed made it clear that rate cuts in 2025 may be smaller than previously expected and also raised its inflation and rate forecasts for the next two years. This shift shattered the market’s hope for a more accommodative environment, leading investors to reassess future growth and risks.
Second, signs of economic slowdown have started to emerge. The Chicago PMI for Dec unexpectedly came in at 36.9, much lower than the forecast of 43, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. In addition, consumer spending slowdown is becoming more apparent, especially for middle and low income groups under the pressure of high interest rates and high debt. This situation directly impacts market confidence in corporate earnings, prompting funds to leave the stock market.
Finally, subtle changes in market sentiment can’t be ignored. In 2024, investors were highly enthusiastic about high-risk assets, but as economic data weakened and policy uncertainty increased, this risk appetite faded noticeably. Funds flowed out of high-valuation growth sectors like tech stocks and into defensive assets like gold and bonds.
Although this week’s market performance seemed a bit sluggish, it also provided more insights for shaping 2025 investment strategies. In the short term, with international tensions and global policy still unclear, the previously leading tech stocks do face some selling pressure. However, from a long-term perspective, the benefits of the tech revolution remain clear and undeniable. Industry changes driven by AI, blockchain, and renewable energy will continue to lead the upgrade of the global economic structure and bring new growth to capital markets.
2025 will undoubtedly be a key milestone for many tech sectors as they accelerate toward maturity and commercialization. First, AI will gradually move from labs to widespread applications. Technologies like generative AI, autonomous driving and smart robotics will expand across industries, from manufacturing to services and even healthcare and education, boosting efficiency and productivity. This means companies along the related tech supply chain, whether in chip manufacturing, data processing or algorithm optimization are poised for explosive growth.
Second, the renewable energy sector will benefit from both policy and demand. With nations advancing their carbon neutrality goals, EVs, energy storage technologies and clean energy infrastructure will become key focuses for capital. Especially with breakthroughs in battery tech and hydrogen energy, the market potential is huge, offering abundant investment opportunities across the entire supply chain from materials supply to vehicle manufacturing.
Moreover, blockchain and the digital asset market are becoming the core drivers of the future digital economy. As regulations become clearer, the compliance process for crypto assets will accelerate. Blockchain applications in financial services, supply chain management and digital identity will deepen further. The metaverse economy may also take shape in 2025, driving the integration of virtual and real worlds.
Among these trends, the Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) and Coinbase that we hold show strong potential.
DJT’s stock price has recently gone through an adjustment, but its long-term investment logic remains solid. As a platform focused on emerging media and social networking, DJT’s core value lies in its unique user positioning and growth potential. With the political environment gradually stabilizing and the platform’s content becoming more diverse, the company is likely to attract more ad revenue and user growth. Additionally, its plans to venture into blockchain technology are worth close attention, as this could become a key growth point in the future.
Coinbase’s performance over the past week reflected the volatility of the digital asset market, but its position as a core company in the blockchain field remains unshaken. The recent trend toward regulatory clarity, combined with rising demand for blockchain applications, gives Coinbase more room to grow. Especially its platform’s user growth and new product launch plans will directly drive revenue growth in the next few quarters.
In the forex market, this week, the performance of GBP/USD met our expectations, with a decline of 1.21%. The reasons for the drop are as follows:
First, weak domestic economic data in the UK directly triggered this decline. The latest data shows that the UK services PMI dropped to 47.8 in Dec, below market expectations and significantly under the breakeven line. This indicates further contraction in service sector activity, raising concerns about the UK’s economic outlook. Behind this weak data, high inflation and high interest rates are continuing to suppress consumption and investment.
Second, the uncertainty around the Bank of England's policy path also weakened the appeal of the pound. In the recent monetary policy meeting, although the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, its comments on future rates were vague, failing to provide clear guidance to the market. In contrast, although the Fed announced a small rate cut in Dec, its "hawkish" tone remained clear, strengthening the dollar's safe-haven status. The divergence in monetary policies between the US and the UK led to continued inflows into dollar assets, putting significant downward pressure on the pound.
Additionally, the overall strength of the dollar is another key factor. Due to rising global risk-off sentiment, investor demand for the dollar has increased. Although US economic data released this week was mixed, core inflation data remained stable and the Fed's firm statements pushed the dollar index higher, indirectly putting pressure on the pound.
Regarding GBP/USD analysis, we predicted this decline as early as last Friday. This is mainly due to our deep understanding of the UK's weak economic fundamentals, the increasing policy divergence and the strong USD logic.
In terms of technical patterns, as shown in the chart above, GBP/USD is in a downtrend below the 21-day moving average and every bounce is a good shorting opportunity. Looking at it now, this strategy has been fully validated in the market. If any students followed the short-term trades, their weekly profits would have reached at least 35%.
As for the outlook, although GBP may find some support around 1.35 in the short term, if the UK economic data continues to be weak and inflation remains stubborn, combined with the latest dynamics in UK and US monetary policy, we will provide real-time trading guidance through our quantitative trading system. For specific trade information, please contact the assistant to get it.
In comparison, the highest returns recently have come from the crypto market. This week, whether following long-term BTC spot trades or short-term contract trades, huge profits were made. As shown in the chart above, the technical analysis we drew on Tuesday, if you followed the spot trade this week and bought around 92360, you would have made over $5.5K per BTC by now. If you participated in contract trading, the profit would have reached over 50%.
Especially Dogecoin, which performed even better this week. As a mainstream coin favored by financial giants like Musk, with Trump's upcoming inauguration and a collective rebound in the crypto market this week, Dogecoin rose 21.6%. If any students actively participated and got trading tips from the assistant, just by participating in Dogecoin spot trades, the profit would be around 20%. This is the certain profit opportunity the crypto market brings under the global economic turmoil and the tech revolution wave.
Recently, many students have been confused about the stock market and some even complained about their recent trades not going well, especially with US stocks continuously weakening. We need to make one thing clear: recently, the overall US stock market performance has indeed been disappointing. The Dow Jones has seen four weeks of declines in the last five weeks and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have not performed any better. In such a market environment, over 80% of stocks are falling and losses have almost become the norm. However, this doesn’t mean there are no investment opportunities.
In fact, our strategy has always focused on a global perspective and flexible responses. Before mid last month, our investment portfolio was consistently profitable, especially in trades with SMCI and Tesla, where many students made over 20%. Short-term losses are not scary, what’s truly dangerous is losing patience and confidence in the market due to emotions. The market always looks for direction in fluctuations and the key is whether we can stay rational, understand the current situation and seize the opportunities within it.
Although the stock market has been sluggish recently, the forex and crypto markets have provided us with another solid source of returns. This week, the crypto market has performed particularly well, with Dogecoin's strong rally being especially noticeable. As one of the market's hot topics, its 20%+ weekly increase not only brought impressive returns but also once again highlighted the importance of our long-standing investment portfolio concept.
This fact reinforces a core point: portfolio investment is an effective strategy to enhance returns and hedge risks. In the context of an accelerating technological revolution and a volatile global economic environment, emerging assets like crypto are showing huge potential. By investing across different markets and assets, we can not only diversify the risk of market fluctuations but also seize structural opportunities in various fields and industries.
Next, our Chief Analyst Hannover, after finishing the public test preparation for the quantitative trading system, will bring us a special session on the "Asset Arbitrage Theory." This theory will help everyone understand the interconnections and potential of different assets, enabling the construction of a stable investment portfolio and achieving steady returns across markets.
It’s worth mentioning that this month we are about to begin the public testing of the quantitative trading system. To thank everyone for their participation and support, our financial academy has also prepared a learning lottery. By participating in the learning program, you’ll have the chance to win BTC, AQS, ETH, DOGE and other crypto prizes, as well as possibly gain access to the public test of the quantitative trading system, providing you with brand new tools for your investments.
That’s all for tonight’s sharing. I hope the content above helps you better understand the trends and improve your investment skills. Next week, I’ll be discussing investment opportunities and strategies for different asset types in the stock market. If you want to follow the trades, please prepare your investment accounts for stocks, crypto, etc. For beginners, it’s recommended to start with small amounts of money in the beginning and gradually increase the investment size after gaining experience.
Let’s follow the 2025 technological revolution trends and start an in-depth exchange on market insights and wealth planning!
Please think about the following after tonight’s content:
1. Summarize which investments lost money this week, which ones made money and why?
2. How can we achieve stable profits? What’s the logic and method for investment profits?